Hong Kong’s 2028 Manpower Shortage Projection Revised to Around 130,000

A revised forecast, not a current headcount

Hong Kong’s Labour and Welfare Bureau published its Mid-term Update of Manpower Projection on 22 September 2026. It now projects an overall manpower shortage of around 130,000 in 2028, compared with approximately 180,000 in the previous projection. These are forecasts for 2028, not measurements of an existing shortage or unemployment.

The bureau points to economic restructuring and AI adoption moderating demand growth, alongside talent admission and labour importation measures supplementing labour supply. The change should not be attributed to AI alone.

Different roles, different pressures

Skilled technical workers and service and sales workers together account for about 60% of the projected overall shortage. The outlook remains particularly tight for innovation and technology, aviation, construction, city operation and healthcare services. In contrast, clerical support workers are projected to have a surplus of approximately 25,000–30,000 by 2028. That occupation-specific surplus is a separate finding, not an amount to add to the overall shortage.

A planning question for businesses

Employers can use the forecast to review which skills may be harder to recruit, where roles may change, and how workforce planning and retraining could support transitions. It is not a recommendation to cut staff or a substitute for organisation-specific employment advice. An economy-wide projection cannot predict an individual employer’s vacancies or staffing needs.

Sources: Government press release · Labour and Welfare Bureau report

Disclaimer: For general information only. These are government projections, not current vacancy or unemployment counts. They do not constitute employment, legal or other professional advice; business decisions should reflect current conditions and individual circumstances.

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